I know that I did an NHL preview the other day, and if you couldn’t tell, hockey isn’t really my number one sport. But now, with the exception of maybe March Madness, my single favorite sporting event of the year is here—(in the voice of Dick Vitale) IT’S NBA PLAYOFFS BABY! So in honor of this hallowed and revered time of year, I give you an NBA playoffs preview (first round only):
Western Conference
Before I get into a deeper analysis, let me just say the Western Conference makes me giddy. I don’t know if you could possibly ask for a more exciting first round. 8 teams great teams, all of whom won 50 games, 7 are fun to watch (sorry Spurs fans. There is no beating around the bush. You have a great team but they are just miserable to watch), and 6 out of the 8 are legit title contenders (OKC is just too young, as much as I love them, and Portland has no chance if Brandon Roy is injured). In a nutshell, the West is a smorgasbord of excellence
#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City Thunder
I would say this is my pick for most exciting first round matchup, but honestly, there are just too many great first round series. Nevertheless, it will be fun to watch. As I wrote several weeks ago, the Lakers are prime for an upset. However, it will not be this round. Despite the Lakers woes the last few weeks, this is a veteran team with countless playoff experience, and (hold your breath) they have Kobe Bryant. As much as I hope the Lakers will, there is no way they are losing this series. Nobody on the Thunder has a chance at guarding Kobe. Ron Artest is going to make Kevin Durant work as hard as Durant has all season for his points. The Thunder do have an advantage at the point guard spot, but Derik Fisher lives for the playoffs. And beyond all that, the Thunder have literally no way of guarding the Lakers down low. I’m sorry, but “no game” Nenad Kristic is going to get abused by Pau Gasol (who incidentally personifies the meaning of Mog—half man, half dog—from Spaceballs. John Candy may actually be better looking though…), and as much as I love Jeff Green, he cannot guard Andrew Bynum down low. While the Thunder may have a better bench, it still will not be enough to overcome the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers in 5.5 (I know that makes no sense, but I just really can’t decide between Lakers in 5 or in 6. But if you don’t like it, sue me. I write the column)
#2 Dallas Mavericks vs #7 San Antonio Spurs
Hands down the most boring playoff series, solely because the Spurs are in it. Listen, I respect the Spurs tremendously, but they make for low ratings and boring basketball. The Mavericks can thank the Wizards for the 2 seed and a legit chance to make it to the finals for the absolute gifts given to them in Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood (who, in the likes of Tim Thomas, is playing out of his mind because it’s a contract year). Let’s get to the point—the Dallas Mavericks are stacked. J-Kidd running the point, Caron Butler at the 2, a motivated Marion at the 3, European, poor man’s Larry Bird aka Dirk Nowitzki at the 4, Erick Dampier/Haywood at center, and Jason Terry and DeShawn Stevenson coming off the bench (yes, I am intentionally forgetting Jose Juan Barrea. I just don’t like him)!! Dallas has a chance to redeem themselves from 2006, when they choked more famously than the Knicks did against Reggie Miller and the Pacers. As good as the Spurs are, they are not going to win this one.
As far as the matchups go, Dallas has this series. They are too deep and have great players at every position except center, but even there they are in good shape. Kidd is in the perfect position at this point in his career. He is completely surrounded by talent and can throw alley-oops all day to Butler and Marion. However Tony Parker will look like Roadrunner out there against Kidd’s aging body and nonexistent defense. Butler and Ginobli essentially cancel each other out. Richard Jefferson has been quite a disappointment this year, and Marion is playing in a system that is almost perfect for him (the only system better is still the Phoenix Suns), so I give Marion the advantage here, plus Marion is a better defender when he wants to be. I don’t really know how the rest of the matchups are going to work. If San Antonio starts both Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess, Nowitzki is going to have a field day and I legitimately would not be surprised if he shot 60% for the series. However, if the Spurs start Duncan at center and put Blair or Bonner on Nowitzki, it really is not going to make that much of a difference, although Duncan will probably destroy Haywood/Dampier. And as far as the bench goes, the Spurs are completely outmatched. Terry is one of the best 6th men in the league, and no one on San Antonio except maybe Roger Mason scares me.
Prediction: Dallas in 6
#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers
This had potential to be another great series, but without their leader in Brandon Roy, I just don’t see the Trailblazers winning this series. I honestly feel bad for the Blazers. They are without Oden and Roy. With them, they would also be contenders. Without them, the Blazers are going to get run back to Portland in time for hunting/fishing season by the surprise of this year in the Phoenix Suns. Andre Miller, who somehow has revitalized his career, will not be able to keep up with Nash (Nash is pretty much like Yoda in Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones. He is just so wise and crafty, and his play is absolutely out of this world, a la Yoda’s battle with Count Dooku). Jason Richardson is without a doubt better than Rudy Fernandez, who will be starting in place of Roy. Nicholas Batum and Grant Hill pretty much cancel each other out, although I may give Hill the advantage only because he has more experience. Amare Stoudamire against LaMarcus Aldridge is not really fair. The over/under for times Amare dunks on Aldridge is about 2.5 Marcus Camby is definitely better than Jarron Collins, but not enough so to make up for Roy’s absence.
Prediction: Suns in 5
#4 Denver Thuggets er, I mean Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz
A quick side note: When watching the Nuggets play, I sometimes feel like I accidentally went to the wrong channel and am watching an episode of Miami Ink or something. It is absolutely ridiculous how many tattoos the Nuggets players have, especially Birdman, Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, and J.R. Smith (he may have the most tattoos in the NBA, an amazing accomplishment if you think about it).
But back to the point. This will be another fantastic first round, although I think the Nuggets have too much firepower. I could be completely wrong because Utah has better chemistry, and that definitely counts for something. Nevertheless, it will be a great series. Chauncey Billups against Deron Williams is a great matchup of point guards, and although Williams is better, Billups plays amazing in the playoffs. Advantage Williams, but not by much. Neither team has good shooting guards if Denver brings J.R. Smith off the bench. Aaron Afflalo against Wesley Matthews is not really a key matchup, although J.R. Smith off the bench will is definitely an advantage for the Nuggets (especially if they are playing at home. See last season’s series against the Lakers—Smith was nonexistent on the road but an absolute monster at home). Carmelo Anthony is going to absolutely destroy C.J. Miles, nothing more needs to be said (ok, I lied.This matchup would not be nearly as one-sided if Andrei Kirilenko was still healthy). Carlos Boozer is worlds better than old Kenyon Martin, although Martin may surprise people if he isn’t still mad about the whole popcorn incident. And while it seems Mehmet Okur is way better than Nene Hilario, I disagree. Nene is without a doubt the most underrated center in the league. Like my buddy J-Mill says, Nene plays great D and throws down some nasty dunks. I give Nene the advantage here.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
Eastern Conference
Unfortunately, the Eastern Conference is not as balanced as the West is. I don’t think many of the series will be that close or fun until the second round. The East is just so one-sided, but I am sure I will be pleasantly surprised by at least one series.
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls
One word: Lebron
Prediction: Cavs sweep
Additional comment: On ESPN.com today it asked if Mo Williams and the Cavs could avoid an upset and beat the Bulls. On what world is Mo Williams the leader of the Cavs?! I am seriously insulted, and if I was the editor of ESPN, I would fire whoever put that up. Such stupidity is not tolerable.
#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats
I have to say I am pleasantly surprised by the fact that the Bobcats got the 7 seed. After years of mediocrity it is nice to see Charlotte make the playoffs. However, the fun will be short-lived. Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis are going to make Boris Diaw and Theo “Methuselah” Ratliff look silly. Jameer Nelson, who hasn’t been quite the same since hurting himself last year, is still better than Raymond Felton (yet another disappointing product from UNC in recent years. See Marvin Williams, Tyler Hansboro, Rashad McCants, Sean May, David Noel, Brandon Wright). As much as I hate to admit it, Stephen Jackson has the advantage over Vince Carter for two reasons. Vince Carter is a complete disappointment and chokes in big situations, and Jackson is playing out of his mind since the trade. Gerald Wallace is also better than Matt Barnes despite Wallace’s complete disappointment in the dunk contest.
Prediction: Orlando in 5
#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks
Just so you know, the most exciting finals would be Atlanta-Oklahoma City hands down. The sheer amount of dunks and Sportscenter-esque plays would be ridiculous. They would have to have a separate top-ten each night dedicated solely to the number of alley-oops thrown. Unfortunately, this matchup has no chance of happening.
Milwaukee is another feel good team this year, and their whole “Fear the Deer” campaign is downright hilarious. However, it’s not going to get them past the Hawks. Milwaukee is just plain out-manned at every position at point guard, and even that advantage is decreasing just as is Brandon Jennings’ field goal percentage. Jennings has way more talent than an aging Bibby does, and Bibby’s defense is up there with Nash and Kidd for most atrocious in the league by a player not named Tim Thomas or Sasha Vujacic (if you don’t believe me about Sasha, watch this video). However, Joe Johnson is clearly better than John Salmons in pretty much every aspect. Furthermore, Josh Smith, the most athletic player in the league sans Lebron, is going to posterize Luc Richard “I got tired of typing his name” so many times its going to make Shawn Bradley feel good about himself again. The first time Smith sends Mbah a Moute’s shot into the 12th row, Mbah a Moute is going to disappear just like Jimmy Hoffa. And without Bogut, the center matchup is also one-sided as Al Horford will have his cake and eat it too against Kurt Thomas.
Prediction: Hawks in 5
#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat
I must say I am so happy the Heat are playing the Celtics in the first round. As a Heat fan, I must say I was not really looking forward to this year’s playoffs. I don’t care what anyone else says, other than Dwyane Wade the Heat are a bunch of average NBA players and good D-Leaguers. I am fairly confident that as far as scoring options go for the Heat it is 1. Dwyane Wade 2. Dwyane Wade and 3. Dwyane Wade.
On paper, this series should be a joke. The Heat are absolutely outmanned at every position except for shooting guard. Rondo kills Chalmers, Pierce kills Quentin Richardson, Kevin Garnett destroys the biggest disappointment for me in recent history, Michael Beasley, and even Rasheed Wallace is better than Miami’s grotesque assembly of centers (I refuse to offer even one compliment to Jermaine O’Neal. When you are the highest paid player in the NBA, you better average better than 14-7. Enough said).
However, Miami may have a chance. The Celtics have been as painful to watch since the All-Star break as Kevin Garnett’s knees. I am assuming that the Celtics are going the old Shaq route—mail it in until the playoffs and then start playing again. If they don’t, the Celtics could be severely disappointed. Wade has the potential to win this one for the Heat.
Prediction: Celtics in 7 (I just have to. I cannot believe that Boston is this bad. They will get it together for at least one round in the playoffs)
Alright, so I went a little long. Hopefully you can tell I am a little excited for the playoffs. I can’t wait to watch the games, and hopefully there will be some pleasant surprises along the way (come on Thunder, come on Thunder!!). As always, until next time…
Western Conference
Before I get into a deeper analysis, let me just say the Western Conference makes me giddy. I don’t know if you could possibly ask for a more exciting first round. 8 teams great teams, all of whom won 50 games, 7 are fun to watch (sorry Spurs fans. There is no beating around the bush. You have a great team but they are just miserable to watch), and 6 out of the 8 are legit title contenders (OKC is just too young, as much as I love them, and Portland has no chance if Brandon Roy is injured). In a nutshell, the West is a smorgasbord of excellence
#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs #8 Oklahoma City Thunder
I would say this is my pick for most exciting first round matchup, but honestly, there are just too many great first round series. Nevertheless, it will be fun to watch. As I wrote several weeks ago, the Lakers are prime for an upset. However, it will not be this round. Despite the Lakers woes the last few weeks, this is a veteran team with countless playoff experience, and (hold your breath) they have Kobe Bryant. As much as I hope the Lakers will, there is no way they are losing this series. Nobody on the Thunder has a chance at guarding Kobe. Ron Artest is going to make Kevin Durant work as hard as Durant has all season for his points. The Thunder do have an advantage at the point guard spot, but Derik Fisher lives for the playoffs. And beyond all that, the Thunder have literally no way of guarding the Lakers down low. I’m sorry, but “no game” Nenad Kristic is going to get abused by Pau Gasol (who incidentally personifies the meaning of Mog—half man, half dog—from Spaceballs. John Candy may actually be better looking though…), and as much as I love Jeff Green, he cannot guard Andrew Bynum down low. While the Thunder may have a better bench, it still will not be enough to overcome the Lakers.
Prediction: Lakers in 5.5 (I know that makes no sense, but I just really can’t decide between Lakers in 5 or in 6. But if you don’t like it, sue me. I write the column)
#2 Dallas Mavericks vs #7 San Antonio Spurs
Hands down the most boring playoff series, solely because the Spurs are in it. Listen, I respect the Spurs tremendously, but they make for low ratings and boring basketball. The Mavericks can thank the Wizards for the 2 seed and a legit chance to make it to the finals for the absolute gifts given to them in Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood (who, in the likes of Tim Thomas, is playing out of his mind because it’s a contract year). Let’s get to the point—the Dallas Mavericks are stacked. J-Kidd running the point, Caron Butler at the 2, a motivated Marion at the 3, European, poor man’s Larry Bird aka Dirk Nowitzki at the 4, Erick Dampier/Haywood at center, and Jason Terry and DeShawn Stevenson coming off the bench (yes, I am intentionally forgetting Jose Juan Barrea. I just don’t like him)!! Dallas has a chance to redeem themselves from 2006, when they choked more famously than the Knicks did against Reggie Miller and the Pacers. As good as the Spurs are, they are not going to win this one.
As far as the matchups go, Dallas has this series. They are too deep and have great players at every position except center, but even there they are in good shape. Kidd is in the perfect position at this point in his career. He is completely surrounded by talent and can throw alley-oops all day to Butler and Marion. However Tony Parker will look like Roadrunner out there against Kidd’s aging body and nonexistent defense. Butler and Ginobli essentially cancel each other out. Richard Jefferson has been quite a disappointment this year, and Marion is playing in a system that is almost perfect for him (the only system better is still the Phoenix Suns), so I give Marion the advantage here, plus Marion is a better defender when he wants to be. I don’t really know how the rest of the matchups are going to work. If San Antonio starts both Tim Duncan and Antonio McDyess, Nowitzki is going to have a field day and I legitimately would not be surprised if he shot 60% for the series. However, if the Spurs start Duncan at center and put Blair or Bonner on Nowitzki, it really is not going to make that much of a difference, although Duncan will probably destroy Haywood/Dampier. And as far as the bench goes, the Spurs are completely outmatched. Terry is one of the best 6th men in the league, and no one on San Antonio except maybe Roger Mason scares me.
Prediction: Dallas in 6
#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trailblazers
This had potential to be another great series, but without their leader in Brandon Roy, I just don’t see the Trailblazers winning this series. I honestly feel bad for the Blazers. They are without Oden and Roy. With them, they would also be contenders. Without them, the Blazers are going to get run back to Portland in time for hunting/fishing season by the surprise of this year in the Phoenix Suns. Andre Miller, who somehow has revitalized his career, will not be able to keep up with Nash (Nash is pretty much like Yoda in Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones. He is just so wise and crafty, and his play is absolutely out of this world, a la Yoda’s battle with Count Dooku). Jason Richardson is without a doubt better than Rudy Fernandez, who will be starting in place of Roy. Nicholas Batum and Grant Hill pretty much cancel each other out, although I may give Hill the advantage only because he has more experience. Amare Stoudamire against LaMarcus Aldridge is not really fair. The over/under for times Amare dunks on Aldridge is about 2.5 Marcus Camby is definitely better than Jarron Collins, but not enough so to make up for Roy’s absence.
Prediction: Suns in 5
#4 Denver Thuggets er, I mean Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz
A quick side note: When watching the Nuggets play, I sometimes feel like I accidentally went to the wrong channel and am watching an episode of Miami Ink or something. It is absolutely ridiculous how many tattoos the Nuggets players have, especially Birdman, Kenyon Martin, Carmelo Anthony, and J.R. Smith (he may have the most tattoos in the NBA, an amazing accomplishment if you think about it).
But back to the point. This will be another fantastic first round, although I think the Nuggets have too much firepower. I could be completely wrong because Utah has better chemistry, and that definitely counts for something. Nevertheless, it will be a great series. Chauncey Billups against Deron Williams is a great matchup of point guards, and although Williams is better, Billups plays amazing in the playoffs. Advantage Williams, but not by much. Neither team has good shooting guards if Denver brings J.R. Smith off the bench. Aaron Afflalo against Wesley Matthews is not really a key matchup, although J.R. Smith off the bench will is definitely an advantage for the Nuggets (especially if they are playing at home. See last season’s series against the Lakers—Smith was nonexistent on the road but an absolute monster at home). Carmelo Anthony is going to absolutely destroy C.J. Miles, nothing more needs to be said (ok, I lied.This matchup would not be nearly as one-sided if Andrei Kirilenko was still healthy). Carlos Boozer is worlds better than old Kenyon Martin, although Martin may surprise people if he isn’t still mad about the whole popcorn incident. And while it seems Mehmet Okur is way better than Nene Hilario, I disagree. Nene is without a doubt the most underrated center in the league. Like my buddy J-Mill says, Nene plays great D and throws down some nasty dunks. I give Nene the advantage here.
Prediction: Nuggets in 7
Eastern Conference
Unfortunately, the Eastern Conference is not as balanced as the West is. I don’t think many of the series will be that close or fun until the second round. The East is just so one-sided, but I am sure I will be pleasantly surprised by at least one series.
#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls
One word: Lebron
Prediction: Cavs sweep
Additional comment: On ESPN.com today it asked if Mo Williams and the Cavs could avoid an upset and beat the Bulls. On what world is Mo Williams the leader of the Cavs?! I am seriously insulted, and if I was the editor of ESPN, I would fire whoever put that up. Such stupidity is not tolerable.
#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats
I have to say I am pleasantly surprised by the fact that the Bobcats got the 7 seed. After years of mediocrity it is nice to see Charlotte make the playoffs. However, the fun will be short-lived. Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis are going to make Boris Diaw and Theo “Methuselah” Ratliff look silly. Jameer Nelson, who hasn’t been quite the same since hurting himself last year, is still better than Raymond Felton (yet another disappointing product from UNC in recent years. See Marvin Williams, Tyler Hansboro, Rashad McCants, Sean May, David Noel, Brandon Wright). As much as I hate to admit it, Stephen Jackson has the advantage over Vince Carter for two reasons. Vince Carter is a complete disappointment and chokes in big situations, and Jackson is playing out of his mind since the trade. Gerald Wallace is also better than Matt Barnes despite Wallace’s complete disappointment in the dunk contest.
Prediction: Orlando in 5
#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks
Just so you know, the most exciting finals would be Atlanta-Oklahoma City hands down. The sheer amount of dunks and Sportscenter-esque plays would be ridiculous. They would have to have a separate top-ten each night dedicated solely to the number of alley-oops thrown. Unfortunately, this matchup has no chance of happening.
Milwaukee is another feel good team this year, and their whole “Fear the Deer” campaign is downright hilarious. However, it’s not going to get them past the Hawks. Milwaukee is just plain out-manned at every position at point guard, and even that advantage is decreasing just as is Brandon Jennings’ field goal percentage. Jennings has way more talent than an aging Bibby does, and Bibby’s defense is up there with Nash and Kidd for most atrocious in the league by a player not named Tim Thomas or Sasha Vujacic (if you don’t believe me about Sasha, watch this video). However, Joe Johnson is clearly better than John Salmons in pretty much every aspect. Furthermore, Josh Smith, the most athletic player in the league sans Lebron, is going to posterize Luc Richard “I got tired of typing his name” so many times its going to make Shawn Bradley feel good about himself again. The first time Smith sends Mbah a Moute’s shot into the 12th row, Mbah a Moute is going to disappear just like Jimmy Hoffa. And without Bogut, the center matchup is also one-sided as Al Horford will have his cake and eat it too against Kurt Thomas.
Prediction: Hawks in 5
#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat
I must say I am so happy the Heat are playing the Celtics in the first round. As a Heat fan, I must say I was not really looking forward to this year’s playoffs. I don’t care what anyone else says, other than Dwyane Wade the Heat are a bunch of average NBA players and good D-Leaguers. I am fairly confident that as far as scoring options go for the Heat it is 1. Dwyane Wade 2. Dwyane Wade and 3. Dwyane Wade.
On paper, this series should be a joke. The Heat are absolutely outmanned at every position except for shooting guard. Rondo kills Chalmers, Pierce kills Quentin Richardson, Kevin Garnett destroys the biggest disappointment for me in recent history, Michael Beasley, and even Rasheed Wallace is better than Miami’s grotesque assembly of centers (I refuse to offer even one compliment to Jermaine O’Neal. When you are the highest paid player in the NBA, you better average better than 14-7. Enough said).
However, Miami may have a chance. The Celtics have been as painful to watch since the All-Star break as Kevin Garnett’s knees. I am assuming that the Celtics are going the old Shaq route—mail it in until the playoffs and then start playing again. If they don’t, the Celtics could be severely disappointed. Wade has the potential to win this one for the Heat.
Prediction: Celtics in 7 (I just have to. I cannot believe that Boston is this bad. They will get it together for at least one round in the playoffs)
Alright, so I went a little long. Hopefully you can tell I am a little excited for the playoffs. I can’t wait to watch the games, and hopefully there will be some pleasant surprises along the way (come on Thunder, come on Thunder!!). As always, until next time…
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